Perusing the weekly lines in search of a shocker or two.The Line: Nebraska (–3) at Texas A&M.
History says: Nebraska has won five of seven against A&M in the Big 12 era, and two straight at Kyle Field ... in 2002 and 2006. More relevantly, the Cornhuskers have won eight in a row on the road dating back to last year, all of them comfortably (by at least eight points) until their overtime escape at Iowa State two weeks ago.
I'm feeling lucky. A&M hit the brakes on a three-game skid and immediately began speeding in the opposite direction once it put its fading offense in the hands of receiver-turned-quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who set a school record with 449 yards and four touchdowns passing in his first start (a 45-27 win over Texas Tech) and has subsequently delivered double-digit wins over both Oklahoma and Baylor. As dramatically as he's enlivened the passing game, though, Tannehill's brief tenure has also corresponded with running back Cyrus Gray's emergence in the backfield: Since starter Christine Michael went down with a broken leg, Gray has ripped off four straight 100-yard games – the longest streak by an Aggie back in 20 years – with eight touchdowns, making making life much easier in the pocket for the new quarterback.
Don't be fooled by Nebraska's vaunted secondary, either: Prior to Kansas' 3-of-13, 15-yard catastrophe last week, Oklahoma State and Iowa State each went over 200 yards passing on the 'Huskers with multiple touchdowns in close, high-scoring losses.
Reality check. Well, Nebraska is No. 1 nationally in pass efficiency defense for a reason – namely, its pair of lockdown corners, Prince Amukamara and Alfonzo Dennard, and deep-dropping, safety-sized linebackers Eric Hagg and Lavonte David. It also ranks in the top 10 nationally in total and scoring defense. The last time the Aggies ran into a defense boasting anywhere near those kinds of numbers, they finished with nine points against Missouri – at home – all coming in the second half after falling into a 23-0 hole.
Moment of truth: Straight-up, against the spread or take the chalk?
Nebraska's been a good road team, obliterating Washington and Kansas State on their fields and outscoring Oklahoma State in Stillwater to hand the Cowboys their only loss. But A&M has clearly hit its stride with Tannehill and Gray in the backfield and still has the Big 12 championship in its sights if the chips fall the right way over the next two weeks. The only other offense Nebraska has seen that can match the Aggies' balanced firepower is Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys put up 41 points on 495 yards. A&M may not go off like that, but it will play better defense and come close enough to come away with a straight-up win that delays the Huskers' Big 12 North coronation another week.
See also...
Northwestern (+8) over Illinois. Even with grossly underrated Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa out for the season, this is a weirdly high line in the Illini's favor, and the bizarre circumstances created by the Wrigley Field alignment put it into"anything can happen here" territory before the opening kick. Give me a Ron Zook team on the brink of collapse, and I'll take "anything" to go against it.
Connecticut (+4) over Syracuse. UConn is coming off back-to-back wins over Big East frontrunners West Virginia and Pittsburgh, both featuring big games by running back Jordan Todman, the league's leading rusher. Syracuse is coming off a loss to Louisville and a narrow escape against Rutgers. If you can't trust a coach that goes for it on fourth down from his own 19-yard line to ice a game, who can you trust?
South Florida (+3) over Pittsburgh. Staying on the "Big East chaos" theme, USF is currently riding the conference's longest winning streak at three games, and can conceivably throw the conference title race into a four-way deadlock as it hits the stretch run. Is there any way that doesn't happen in this league?
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Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.
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