Saturday, July 30, 2011

ACC Forecast: In which a divided nation confronts Virginia Tech?s non-conference schedule

Twelve hyper-specific predictions for the ACC in 2011. Wrapping up ACC Week.

? Florida State will win its first ACC title in six years, but with a much better record than the 8-5 campaign in 2005. Including the conference championship game and bowl game, the Seminoles should win at least 11 games for the first time since the 2000 FSU team that played for the BCS championship, setting up the still-young 'Noles as a chic frontrunner for the national title going into 2012.

? Virginia Tech will go into an early November bye week undefeated at 9-0, sparking a weeks-long debate about the Hokies' cushy non-conference schedule ? until their BCS title hopes are dashed in one of two Thursday night dates against Georgia Tech (Nov. 10) and North Carolina (Nov. 17). With a September slate consisting of Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State and Marshall and Florida State absent from the conference schedule, Tech likely won't face a ranked opponent until the conference championship game.

? Miami will lead the conference in total defense but drop at least three games in which the offense fails to crack 20 points for the second year in a row. The 'Canes return the vast majority of both the front seven that led the nation in tackles for loss in 2010 and the secondary that finished fifth nationally in pass efficiency D, but also return two inconsistent quarterbacks finding their way under a new offensive coordinator with an uninspiring track record.

? Running backs Andre Ellington and Mike Bellamy will revive the "Thunder and Lightning" label at Clemson en route to racking up more total yards than any other backfield duo in the conference. New offensive coordinator Chad Morris is importing a more up-tempo style from Tulsa, and both running backs are going to see a ton of action. Ellington, who averaged more than six yards a carry in a part-time role last year, has already proven himself, and Bellamy, an elite incoming freshman, shouldn't be far behind.

? Defying the storm cloud of pending NCAA sanctions, North Carolina will briefly rise into the top 10 in both major polls on the strength of a 6-0 start. The Tar Heels will subsequently drop at least three of their final six games over the second half of the season, but still finish in the top 25 for the first time since Mack Brown's final season as head coach in 1997 ? even as rumors about Butch Davis' job security continue to swirl through the bowl game and the start of the new year.

? In an unguarded moment following a tough loss, N.C. State coach Tom O'Brien will admit that he regrets forcing All-ACC quarterback Russell Wilson to choose his baseball career over football earlier this year. While the Wolfpack struggle under up-and-down new starter Mike Glennon, Wilson will be putting up big numbers in Wisconsin and making humble statement about his exit from Raleigh as he prepares to start in a BCS game.

? Boston College junior Luke Kuechly will win the Butkus Award as the nation's best linebacker. Kuechly, a junior, has 341 career tackles, including a national-best 183 stops as a sophomore, putting him on pace to smash former Northwestern linebacker Tim McGarigle's career mark (545 tackles from 2002-05) if he returns for his senior season. If healthy, though, Kuechly will decide instead to take advantage of first-round projections in the 2012 draft.

? Georgia Tech will shuffle through three different starting quarterbacks over the first two months of the season before finally settling on one of three spectacularly named freshmen ?�Vad Lee, Demontevious Smith or redshirt Synjyn Days ?�for the stretch run in November. Despite the revolving door, 6-foot-5 receiver Stephen Hill will double his 2010 production (15 catches, 291 yards, 3 touchdowns) as a junior.

? Maryland senior Kenny Tate will improve his draft stock at outside linebacker after passing up a second-round projection as a safety to return to school. Tate led the Terps in total tackles and earned a first-team All-ACC nod last year from his position at free safety, but at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, the new coaching staff under Randy Edsall immediately recognized him as a natural at linebacker.

? Virginia will pull at least one key upset in a four-game midseason stretch against Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Miami and Maryland, keeping the Cavaliers' hopes of returning to a bowl game alive going into the season finale against Virginia Tech. Even after they come up short in a surprisingly competitive effort against the Hokies, coach Mike London will widely credited with getting the Cavs moving in the right direction for "team on the rise" status heading into 2012.

? No Wake Forest player will earn a single vote for the postseason all-conference team, making Wake the league's only shutout on the team for the second year in a row. But the Demon Deacons will end their one-year drought in the NFL Draft courtesy of one of three mammoth senior linemen, Joe Looney (6-3, 320), Doug Weaver (6-8, 325) and Dennis Godfrey (6-3, 350), who have combined for 66 career starts.

? At some point in the midst of a seven-game losing streak to close the season, Duke's independent student newspaper, The Chronicle, will publish a thoughtful, in-depth package of stories arguing for the university to drop football as a Division I sport. "David Cutcliffe is the most competent head coach this school has had since Steve Spurrier," an editorial accompanying well-researched analyses of the program's longstanding on-field, attendance and financial woes will read. "Yet even he has managed only five conference wins in five years and the team will miss a bowl game this winter for the 19th consecutive season."

Hard copies of the issue will subsequently be used to construct papier-m�ch� masks of Blue Devil basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski for distribution in the student section in basketball games.

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Atlantic Division predictions by Graham Watson.
Matt Hinton is on Twitter: Follow him @DrSaturday.

Source: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/ACC-Forecast-In-which-a-divided-nation-confront?urn=ncaaf-wp4092

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